Will Home Prices Fall This Fall?

THIS JUST IN: Housing experts reveal their Fall 2023 market predictions.

Everest discusses home prices, supply, and where prices are falling most.

The autumn season brings cozy comfort, falling leaves, apple pie, pumpkin spice, and everything nice. But for those in the real estate industry, fall also ushers in some great homebuying opportunities. 

House hunters—things are looking up! 

The summer scaries are finally over. Relief is here as list prices take their seasonal drop, competition lightens, and serious homebuyers may actually find a bargain. 

 
But don’t start carving your pumpkin just yet. Fall may come with some much-needed perks, but today’s market still presents a host of challenges. Buyers will see some relief from the stale listings of summer, but inventory is still comparatively low. 

Not to mention, mortgage rates still aren’t quite great, and stubbornly high list prices continue to haunt neighborhoods across the country. People looking to make a purchase may feel intimidated.

That said, real estate experts have studied the situation and are ready to debut their housing market predictions for Fall 2023. 

Everest is happy to report that despite a few obstacles, there’s a promising outlook beyond October! Let’s discuss. 

Why fall is buyer-friendly 

No matter the current market, this time of year always brings respite for homebuyers. In fact, industry experts calculate that no matter where you are, the week of October 1-7 is technically “the best time to buy.” During this week, the average buyer locks in $15,000 or more in savings compared to summer peak. 

Now, don’t worry if you missed that exact window. Shoppers can expect similar bargains later in October and well into the final months of 2023. Here’s why. 

“Generally speaking, fall gives buyers an opportunity to get a good deal,” explains Everest Loan Officer Alex Berkowitz. “Sellers that were holding on and asking high prices in the summer start to realize winter is approaching. They know it may be more difficult to sell, so they are motivated to lower their prices. It’s a winning opportunity for buyers to strike a deal.” 

Historical trends also suggest that October offers a 18.9% increase in fresh listings compared to the start of the year. Buyers who have been discouraged by the dearth of options can finally shop around and potentially score their dream home. 

For those of us shopping in the Northeast, lack of listings has been a huge letdown this year. It’s encouraging to know that more options are bound to hit the market soon. 

What’s going on regionally? 

Research shows that even in today’s tough market, some pockets of the country are seeing dramatic price drops. 

In particular, areas that were popular destinations during the pandemic have finally topped out. The hope is that historically expensive markets in the Northeast will also benefit from this trend in the coming fall and winter months. 

5 Places Where Prices are Falling the Most

1. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (-2.9%)

2. Las Vegas, Nevada (-2.7%)

3. Stockton, California (-2.1%)

4. Austin, Texas (-2%)

5. Phoenix, Arizona (-1.2%)

Housing affordability was a key issue across America this past year. Looking back on the earlier months of 2023, we notice an interesting trend. Places that were once considered “affordable” are now experiencing significant surge in prices—some for the first time ever. 

5 Places Where Prices are Rising the Most

1. Naples, Florida (+17.1%)

2. Albany, New York (+16.9%)

3. Fort Wayne, Indiana (+15.7%)

4. Toledo, Ohio (+15.6%)

5. Manchester, New Hampshire (+15.6%)

In addition to Albany, we were surprised to see some other nearby places make the “rising” list including Reading, Pennsylvania (+14.3%) and Trenton, New Jersey (+12.4%). 

So, what does it all mean for Everest’s family of hopeful home searchers in 2023? 

Even though market conditions will be more favorable in October, you still need to be smart, practical, and strategic when it comes to closing the deal. Grab your pumpkin spice latte—we’ve got a gameplan. 

Top Homebuyer Tips for Fall 2023 

Get prequalified by a professional. 

At the onset of your house-hunting journey, real estate agents and sellers will want to see that you’ve consulted with an experienced mortgage broker and have the funds to potentially seal the deal. Being prequalified can give you an edge if your dream home comes along. 

Work with an Everest loan officer to secure a detailed prequalification letter. And if you’re ready to take things a step further, work with a qualified professional for verified pre-approval. These estimates help boost your credibility ahead of closing. 

Know what you can realistically afford. 

Here at Everest, our outlook is always positive—but also practical. We’ve been in the industry long enough to know that market conditions are wildly unpredictable. That’s why we always advise clients to play it safe when it comes to investing in a home purchase. 

“You have to know what you can realistically afford,” says Mr. Berkowitz. “It’s not always what the bank says you can afford. Homebuyers have to be able to afford the payments with today’s interest rates and not buy into what people say about possible refinancing down the road. We can’t predict what will happen with rates in a year or two. If they do drop, that’ll be a bonus!” 

Don’t wait until it’s too late. 

If you’re ready now, there’s no better time to buy! Year after year, the stats tell us that buyers enjoy the best perks between fall and early winter. This is the window when we see the lowest premiums above market value and less competition compared to other seasons. 

And don’t be afraid to negotiate with sellers for a better price. If they’re thinking about taking their home off the market during winter, your bid may be the one that wins! 

Everest says: When leaves falls, good deals call

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